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Kent Test and Headteacher Assessment for Entry in September 2021: Further Analysis

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This article follows on from my previous: ‘Kent Test 2020, Initial Results and Comment’, published in October and is written in the shadow of issues relating to the coronavirus pandemic. Evidence for KCC’s commitment to do 'All That is Practical and Possible to Address all Forms of Disadvantage' is hard to find. I have, for the first time, separated out the performance of Kent state and privately educated children, who in many cases will have had a different experience of schooling in this unique year.
The main outcomes include, for Kent state school children:
A fall of nearly 10% in the number of both boys and girls taking the Kent Test.
A fall from 25.1% to 24.1% in the number of state school children being found of grammar school masks the  8% decline in the boys’ success rate, by a total of 165 boys,  with the number of successful girls increasing by 52.
A fall of 9% in the Headteacher Assessment pass rate is equally spread across boys and girls, but girls continue to have the highest referral and pass rates with 10% of girls in Canterbury succeeding at HTA, as usual by some way the highest rate in Kent.
The biggest district falls in pass rates are in Dover, Gravesham, Swale and Thanet, all areas of higher than average social deprivation. 
Not for the first time, St Joseph's Catholic Primary in Northfleet is amongst the usual crop of West Kent schools with the highest pass rate in the county, along this year with Blean and Wickhambreux in Canterbury, Bodsham CofE in Ashford, Sheldwich near Faversham and Tunstall in Sittingbourne.   
60 more girls, privately educated in Kent schools, were found selective than in 2019  contributing to an increase from 9.2% to 10.4% of successful candidates coming from private schools. There has also been a large increase in the number of out of county girls taking and passing the Kent Test. 
In summary, girls especially those privately educated, have done best out of the altered arrangements, whilst children in less prosperous areas have fared less well.I look more closely at these and other outcomes, including results for out of county children, the effect of coronavirus on grammar school appeals, and KCCs failure to release data about the performance of children attracting Pupil Premium, all below.
My articles last summer on 2020 allocations to grammar schools, and here on grammar school appeals, provide a considerable background to this subject. After the general comments immediately below, you will find further sections on additional pages, from the following links.
The Kent Test pass mark is set to give an overall selective assessment of 25% of the following population. The database comprises all Year Six children in Kent state schools added to those entered for the Kent Test from private schools in the county. The pass mark required an aggregate score of 332, slightly higher than last year, with an additional requirement to score 108 on each of the three sections - English, mathematics, and reasoning, producing 20.0% of the population, with an additional 5.8% through the HTA, giving a total pass rate of 25.9%, slightly down on last year’s  26.6%.No matter what difficulties were thrown up by the pandemic, approximately the same proportion are found selective each year, so it is not possible to determine whether the process was more challenging or not. 
The two tables below show more detailed outcomes for the two sectors, the main features being the significantly increased proportion of girls being found selective in both sectors,  especially in the much smaller private sector. This may be a reflection of a more mature work ethic of girls at this age, and of the effect of social disadvantage in the state sector.

The pass mark is sufficient for entrance to the majority of Kent grammar schools, apart from seven that require higher marks for all or most of their entrants. The required marks for the latter vary according to demand each year and will be reported in March in my initial secondary allocations article.  Further places are awarded at the six schools which run local tests (see below) and can also be awarded to individual schools by the appeal process. My article on Appeals reports on 2020 outcomes, alongside the Individual Schools section which gives 2020 appeal data for every secondary school that held appeals, and I have also included a section on this year's appeals process below.   

Pupil Premium 
In previous years the Kent FOI team have been able to supply me with data on Pupil Premium performance at this time but apparently, due to an oversight, they were not aware that they had previously matched the data in their possession.  As a result,  I am having to wait until March to establish the effect of coronavirus on the performance of disadvantaged children. I am assured this was an accident, although will look at this in more detail in a later article.  I have made my views clear, that the failure to make changes to the selection process for 2021 entry will have penalised disadvantaged and 'ordinary' children, and there is already some evidence of this in the current article. The delay in providing relevant data will inevitably put off and diminish potential criticism of further evidence to that effect.
 
There is one area where I am pleased to see KCC has given positive advice to support these children and that is in a document relating to HTA, sent to primary headteachers. This gives them advice on what to put on the PESE  4 sheet which accompanies school work to the HTA hearing. It reads:
 

Advice to Primary Headteachers for the Headteacher Assessment

The PESE 4,  Headteacher assessment form, has been emailed to you.  If you have evidence which you believe indicates that a pupil has been inappropriately assessed, you may use PESE 4 to refer the assessment to an assessment panel, which will consider your comments, the evidence you submit and the writing exercise for the child in question. I have been asked to remind all Heads to have particular regard to the interests of any potential grammar school candidates from disadvantaged groups, such as children in care or those eligible for free school meals.

 
However, I have seen no parallel advice to HTA Panellists to take note of this. 
 
 
Next: Kent Test Pass and Overall Selection Rate

Kent Test Pass and Overall Selection Rate
State Schools
Although the number of children inYear Six of Kent primary schools has risen by 234, the number taking the Kent Test has fallen by 690 since 2019, a decline of nearly 8%, surely down entirely to the pandemic, with many children having missed a great deal of education. Not surprisingly, the Test pass proportion remains very similar to the previous year, pass marks having been set to achieve this. However, there is a distinct fall in the number of boys considered for and being successful at the HTA, which reflects the lack of evidence available, as seen further in the HTA table below.  
Kent State Schools Grammar Assessments 2020
for Admission in September 2021:
 20202019
 BoysGirlsTotalBoys %Girls %Total %
boys
girls 
total 
boys
%
girls
%
Total
%
Year Six
916889561812451%  49%9064882617890
51%
49%
 
Sat Test
48585134999253% 57% 55.1% 5223
5469
10682
58%
62%
59.7%
Test Pass
16941639333319%18%18.4%1781
1545
3326
20%
18%
18.6%
HTA
860111319739% 12% 10.9% 
958
1102
2060
11% 
13%
11.5%
HTA Passes44159810395%7%5.7%51964011596% 7% 6.5% 
Total Passes
21352237437223.3%25.0%24.1%
2300
2185
4485
25.3% 
24.8%
25.1%
 
 Private Schools
Because KCC does not have access to the data of pupil numbers in private schools, it uses the smaller figure of the number of pupils taking the test in its calculation of the pass mark. It has for many years combined the two when calculating a pass mark to give an outcome of around 25%. If it decided to change this policy as does Medway, using only state school numbers to calculate the pass mark, it would simply have to raise the pass mark to keep the number of successful candidates from both sectors the same.
 
Some of the private school successes will not take up grammar school places, preferring to remain private, but having used the Kent Test to establish their child's ability. 
 
Kent Grammar School Assessments 2020
for Admission in September 2021: Private Schools
 20202019
 BoysGirlsTotalBoys %Girls %Total %
boys
girls 
total 
boys
%
girls
%
Total
%
Sat Test
354372726  368301669  
Test Pass
21923345262%63%62%
227
17440162%
58%
60%
HTA
706713720% 19% 19% 8356139
23% 
19%
21%
HTA Passes3125569%8%8%3124558% 8% 8% 
Total Passes
25025850871%69%70%
258
198456
70% 
66%
68%
 
As can be seen from the table, the main change is in the large number of additional girls in private schools who have taken the test, with 60 of these going on to pass it. I have no particular explanation for this phenomenon, it could be additional girls in those schools, or parents being unable to afford private secondary education, opting for a state grammar school if possible, instead.
Next: District Variation in Passes

District Variation in Passes
The table below shows the pattern of success in the Kent Test and by HTA across Kent’s 14 Districts for children in state schools, as well as highlighting variation in the success rate of boys and girls. More children will be offered places at six individual grammar schools through Local Tests (348 in 2020), see below. 
 
District Performance for Kent Test 2020District Performance for Kent Test 2019 
District
Automatic
Passes
%
HTA
Success
%
Total
Success
%
Automatic
Passes
%
HTA
Success
%
Total
Success
%

 BGTBGTBGTBGTBGTBGT
Sevenoaks272827365303432272627465323232
Tunbridge
Wells
272827354303231282627254313131
Dartford222222455262827242424365283129
Tonbridge
& Malling
222423354262927222222455272727
Canterbury
1816177109262726
17
17
17
10
10
10
28
26
27
Maidstone171918677232725211819677272526
Ashford181818586232624171617565222322
Gravesham17171746521232219  1618587242424
Thanet141313677202020141414999211523
Swale1313135761920201611146108232122
Folkestone
& Hythe
151314454191819171114444211518
Dover13911676181718141012898 211920
Total1818185762325242018  196 7 625 2525
 

 At the head of the District table, Sevenoaks, Tonbridge and Tunbridge Wells maintain their positions and pass rates from 2019 with almost identical data. Dartford maintains its position in spite of a fall in performance, although with a different social profile to the West Kent schools. Canterbury continues to perform well, with its tradition of allowing the highest proportion of girls in the county through on HTA, which dates back to an influential previous headteacher.

Children in the Ashford District are the only ones to have seen a significant increase in performance on the Kent Test itself for some reason, possibly related to the large housing developments in the area.

However, at the foot of the table, Dover, Thanet, Swale and Gravesham have all fallen, the pass rate being down by eight to ten per cent in each case. This is almost certainly down to the higher level of disadvantage in these areas.

The situation in Thanet is especially worthy of comment, with non-selective education still in a state of turmoil, containing the two most over-subscribed N/S schools in the county, and the two most unpopular. One consequence of this is the pressure on families to evade the problem by chasing grammar school places. For 2020 admission a solution was to create a higher number of selective children by increasing HTA numbers. This created unmanageable pressure on the two grammar schools, and the figures have fallen back again for 2021 admission. A new school was to be opened in 2021, then 2022, now 2023, in an attempt to resolve the problems, although its website indicates no progress since a planning consultation last August. I have written extensively on this matter, most recently here, and specifically about grammar schools here.

Next:  Individual School Performance, and Local Tests


Individual School Performance
Understandably, many parents are interested in identifying the primary schools which have the greatest success rates in the Kent selection process. Any list is fraught with difficulty as children’s success rates will often depend more on private tutoring arrangements than in-school support. Indeed KCC rules make quite clear that schools may not teach to support Kent Test performance, a rule which is broadly enforced in state schools, although many use devices to get around this. In spite of claims to the contrary, there is no regulation of private schools in this matter, some of whom exist primarily for the purpose of helping children get to grammar school.

KCC regulations covering data released through Freedom of Information requests place considerable restrictions on what is available where small numbers are involved. As a result the following lists, whilst accurate as far as they go, may have omitted a few high performing schools, whilst others are provided with approximate numbers. I am happy to receive additional data. Given all these caveats:

Ashford: Smarden (in excess of) 58%) Stowting (in excess of) 56%; Bodsham 53%; Challock, 48%.

Canterbury: St Peter’s Methodist (in excess of) 60%; Blean, 60%; Wickhambreaux, 56%; Barham 52%.

Dartford: West Hill, 51%; Our Lady of Hartley Catholic, (in excess of) 50%; Gateway 47%; St Anselm’s Catholic, 45%;

Dover, Deal and Sandwich: Sandwich Junior, 46%; Langdon (in excess of) 42%; St Margaret’s at Cliffe, 42%; Sholden CofE, 38%.

Folkestone & Hythe: Sandgate 38%; Lyminge 36%; St Augustine’s Catholic,30 %; Lympne CofE, 29%

Gravesham: St Joseph's Catholic, 57%; Meopham, 39%; Cobham, 38%; Shorne, 34%; 

Maidstone:  Roseacre Junior, 47%; East Farleigh, 38%: Yalding, Sts Peter & Paul CofE, 38%; Brunswick House, 36%

Sevenoaks: Amherst, 64%; Lady Boswell’s CofE, 62%; Sevenoaks, 57%; St John's CofE (in excess of) 56%

Swale: Sheldwich 53%; Tunstall CofE 53%; Selling CofE; St Peter’s Catholic, 47%

Thanet: St Nicholas at Wade CofE, 42%; Upton Junior 40%; Christ Church CofE Junior, 30%; St Ethelbert’s Catholic, 29%; 

Tonbridge & Malling: Plaxtol, (in excess of) 60%; Stocks Green, 55%; Ightham, 50%; Discovery, 49%;

Tunbridge Wells: Claremont 62%;Langton Green, 55%; Bidborough, 52%; Goudhurst & Kilndown CofE, (in excess of) 47% 

Local Tests
In 2020, another 348 children were offered Kent grammar school places through success in a local Test only, mainly in Dover and Shepway, at least doubling the number of children offered grammar places through the Kent Test in those districts. Is this providing more opportunities in areas of social deprivation, or damaging local non-selective schools, or both?

Apart from The Harvey Grammar School and Folkestone School for Girls, which offer the same test, each sets its own test, along with the pass standard. Both the Folkestone and Dover Tests take place on the same day, inhibiting dual applications.  

Kent Grammar School Offers by Local Test 2020
 
Kent Selection
Process Offers
Local Test
Offers
% of Offers
by Local Test
Successful  Admission
Appeals
Dover Boys636450%14
Dover Girls968447%4
Folkestone7911162%8
Harvey1014933%6
Highsted1202718%11
Mayfield167137%38
 
Next: Head Teacher Assessments and Grammar School Appeals


Head Teacher Assessments (HTA)
You will find full details of the process hereThe HTA takes into account headteacher's recommendation, child's performance in class and in standardised tests, together with any special circumstances, success depending on satisfying a Panel of Headteachers that the child is of grammar school ability. Primary schools choose how many and which children to put forward for the HTA in a process which is supposed to remain confidential (and is broadly in state schools, parental pressure in local private schools sometimes overruling this principle) with a variety of different approaches to identifying who should be put forward. Some schools, including some Catholic schools, choose not to take part in the process.  
 
Most automatic passes follow socio-economic patterns across the county, but the influence of HTAs is quite different, perhaps reflecting local pressures. The table below shows outcomes of the four Headteacher Assessment Panels, that operate geographically across the county. Note: HTAs for out of county pupils will be considered by the most appropriate Panel, usually West or North West   
 
Head Teacher Assessments 2020
DistrictBoysGirlsTotalBoys %Girls %Total 
HTAs Considered
East  Kent 40353593843%57% 
Mid Kent28836465244%56%
NW Kent 19823142946%54%
West Kent 14215129348%52%
Total10311281231244%56%
 HTAs Upheld
East  Kent 21928049954%52% 53%
Mid Kent14519634150%54% 52%
NW Kent 9514123648%61% 55%
West Kent616812943% 45% 44%
Total
520
685
1205
50%
 53%
 52%
Compare with the 2019 data, one can see that the numbers of candidates being put forward by primary headteachers are well down, partly because the numbers taking the test are also down, but also I believe because of lack of academic evidence to support individual cases where children have missed schooling over the relevant period.  In particular, the number of boys put forward for assessment has fallen, across the county, the gender gap being magnified in NW Kent by a low success rate for boys. West Kent always has lower numbers than the rest of the county, possibly because primary schools are aware of the pressure on grammar school places.  
Grammar School Appeals 2020.
In any normal year, this would not merit a section on its own, but 2020 has been very different as explained in my Appeals survey. However, the challenges facing both appellants and appeal panels for this summer's hearings will be considerably greater. The rules say that for a grammar school appeal to be successful the appellant must produce evidence to show the child is of grammar school ability, and in past years this will have included reports from the school with evidence of performance through test results, annual school reports, etc. Many children have had limited schooling over the past twelve months, and remote learning may not be conducive to such evidence being attainable. Given all this the academic evidence, such as it is, from a supportive headteacher becomes even more important. Evidence from private sources such as tutors is much less helpful, for there is no assurance that this will be objective with parents having paid for it.  The normal rules for the conduct of appeals have been disapplied again, the changes being as for 2020 appeals, as follows:
 
Summary of changes in Regulations for School Admission Appeals in 2021
The new regulations:
  • disapply the requirement that appeals panels must be held in person and instead give flexibility for panel hearings to take place either in person, by telephone, video conference or through a paper-based appeal where all parties can make representations in writing
  • relax the rules with regard to what happens if one of the 3 panel members withdraws (temporarily or permanently) to make it permissible for the panel to continue with and conclude the appeal as a panel of 2
  • amend the deadlines relating to appeals for the time that the new regulations are in force

My 2020 Survey looks at the pattern of appeals last year across the three types, with each Individual School Information section explaining the procedure they adopted. I am up to date with most Kent schools, with Medway to follow, but am happy to revise these individually on request.  The survey also gives links back to a number of articles exploring the experience of such appeals. 


Out of County Outcomes
 There is always considerable media pressure in the number of OOC children passing the Kent Test, 3066  this year,  but the reality is that around 415 (I cannot be exact as there are small numbers involved in some Local Authorities, so I have to take an approximation) were offered places in Kent grammar schools last year, and an unknown number of these will have not taken them up. 
 
 
 Out of County Kent Grammar School Assessments 2020
for Admission in September 2021*
 20202019
 BoysGirlsTotalBoys %Girls %Total %
boys
girls 
total 
boys
%
girls
%
Total
%
Out of County Tested
2497 2628 5125 49% 51%  2483 2312 479552%  48% 
Out of County Automatic Pass
1540 1409 2949 62% 54% 58% 1410 1204 
2614
57%  52% 55%
OOC Headteacher Assessment
102 113 2154% 4% 4% 124 145 2695%  6%
6%
OOC HTA Pass
48 72 120 2%  3%2% 64 90 1543%  4%
 3%
Total OOC Passes1588 1478 3066 64% 56% 60% 1474  1294276859%  56%58%
 
Some of the out of county applications occur due to what has been called 11 plus tourism, as too many London families apply to grammar schools around the M25 belt (Dartford and Enfield?), and also the North West Kent grammars being easily reached by rail out of SE London. In addition, some families use the Kent Test for free of charge practice in preparation for entrance exams for other schools and Local Authorities. Croydon is typical with 69 Kent Test passes, along with Southwark 54, Surrey 55, and Tower Hamlets, 49, with no evidence of children from these areas taking up Kent places in past years.  

 

Local Authorities with more than 100
Out of County Assessments for Kent Test 2020
Council
Number
Assessed
 Found
Selective
Grammar Places
in 2020*
Bexley1064600104
Greenwich69437735
Bromley77756381
Medway55327316
Lewisham 2991716
Redbridge198147less than five
Thurrock135818
East Sussex1298141
Barking and Dagenham12674less than five
Newham 12484less than five
 * Note: I only have data for individual schools or Local Authorities where numbers are greater than five. As a result, several of these numbers will be slightly larger than shown. 
 
Redbridge is new from last year in the table, although without evidence of children coming into Kent in previous years, and Southwark has dropped out. 

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