Kent Primary Schools: Oversubscription & Vacancies 2020

The total number of children offered places in Kent reception classes on allocation in April 2020 is 17,534, up by 163 on 2019’s 17371, but still lower than the peak of 18,066 of 2016.

The  Commissioning Plan for Education Provision in Kent 2020-2024 provides an official view of the current situation and future planning requirements for Kent and is broadly consistent with this article for 2020 provision. 

This annual report is the longest article I write in the year and will become one of the most visited in time. The parallel 2019 article has now received 15,591 visits at the time of writing. Please let me know of any errors or areas that need expansion. You will find Ofsted outcomes for all schools in the Individual Schools section, and a survey of 2019-20 outcomes to Lockdown here.

KCC has a target of securing 5% vacancies in each District, but the norm is that this often hides a sharp distinction between different areas such as rural and urban, and so I have separated these below. There is also a stated preference for schools to have two forms of entry (60 children), although this is under ever increasing pressure as more places need to be provided. 

 * Including 60 additional places outside the system at Bearsted Primary Academy. 

At the other end of the scale, the schools in the villages in Folkestone and Hythe District have, together with Hythe itself, 23% of their places empty overall, six over a third empty. However, there is the remarkable success story here of Brenzett CofE, regularly a failing school under KCC control with one of the county’s highest vacancy rates annually as a consequence, 75% in 2019. Brenzett has completely filled its 21 Reception places for 2020 as an Academy under the Diocese of Canterbury Academies Trust. 

The level of oversubscription of a school can be strongly influenced by at least  two factors out of its control. Firstly, is the matter of siblings who are generally given priority. A classic case was at Singlewell Primary in 2015, when 25 out of 30 places were awarded to siblings and the catchment distance shrunk to 200 yards. Secondly variation in the number of children living in small villages can produce a considerable effect on intake, although families will still send their children some distance, and I am aware of a number of traditional routes of this nature.

I also look at the KS2 performance table, and  Ofsted performance where these may be relevant to parental preferences, below. 

The Districts surveyed are:

Page 3 - Ashford; Canterbury (including Whitstable and Herne Bay); Cranbrook; Dartford; 

Page 4 – Dover Deal & Sandwich; Faversham; Folkestone & Hythe; Gravesham; Maidstone; 

Page 5 -Malling (including Kings Hill); Sevenoaks; Sheppey; Sittingbourne; Swanley

Page 6 -Thanet; Tonbridge;Tunbridge Wells; Junior Schools; Not Offered the School of Your Choice; Appeals

Individual academies are denoted (A) and schools set up as Free Schools (F).

 Next: Individual Schools in Ashford; Canterbury (including Whitstable and Herne Bay); Cranbrook; Dartford.

Across the District there were just 21 Local Authority Allocations well down on the 55 of 2019.

Outside the town, just five of the 21 schools are mildly oversubscribed, led by Aldington and Wittersham turning away six first choices. Bethersden has turned away a pupil for the first time in years, with 35% of its 20 places empty in 2019.

Lady Joanna Thornhill, in Wye, has seen a sharp fall in popularity dropping from 57 first preferences to 37, leaving the school with 19 vacancies, although I have no indication of why. It has had three consecutive Outstanding Ofsted Inspections, and average KS2 results. Six other schools also have over a quarter of their places empty.

As in previous years, the popularity of the nine city schools is heavily polarised, with four schools oversubscribed, led this year by St Thomas’ Catholic School with 24 first preferences not offered, and one of the highest proportions of first choices per place in the county at 180%. It is followed by St Stephen’s Infants with 17. Wincheap Foundation Primary’s popularity appears to have collapsed, falling from 33 first choices turned away in 2019, to three this year.

The five other schools have 79 vacancies amongst them, Parkside having improved its intake to 50% full, following much improved KS2 results (including Writing Well Above Average, although it was amongst worst in Kent in 2018) at the expense of Pilgrims Way (A)  going the other way, the area having suffered from receiving a large London overspill population over the past few years. As a result the only school due for expansion is  Pilgrims Way due for expansion in 2021 as explained here.  

There is a quite remarkable shift in parental choices in the rural hinterland, which has seen a fall of 26 in the number of children being offered school places, to 2020’s 351. In 2019, there were two heavily oversubscribed schools in Blean and Bridge & Patrixbourne CofE, also the top two in 2018, along with another five oversubscribed schools. For 2020, choices appear to have fallen much more equally amongst the 12 schools, with Blean oversubscribed by 13 first choices (down by 18), Barham 10, whilst Bridge & Patrixbourne did not fill.  The only other oversubscribed school is Wickhambreaux with two disappointed first choices.

Although numbers are up along the coastal strip, there is still plenty of capacity, with just two of the nine schools oversubscribed, Herne CofE Infants 26 disappointed first choices, and Hampton 10. The only other school that filled was St Alphege CofE Infant, which had 24 vacancies in 2019.

As in previous years Goudhurst & Kilndown CofE is significantly oversubscribed as usual with its Outstanding Ofsted, although disappointing KS2 results by its own standard in 2019. With 14 first choices turned down, it has almost been caught up this year by Benenden Primary, benefitting from its complete rebuild last September, disappointing 12 first choices whereas in 2019 it didn’t quite fill. In all, seven of the 12 schools oversubscribed.

A new school, St Andrew’s CofE (F) had been planned for Paddock Wood, but has been put on hold because numbers didn’t hold up. The correctness of this decision is underlined by applications for Paddock Wood (A) with 21 of its 90 places unfilled this year, down from 4 vacancies in 2019.

West Dartford is one of the tightest areas in Kent with only 1% of vacancies. It will be even tighter next year unless extra accommodation is found. This is in spite of the new River Mill Primary (F) joining the Kent Co-ordinated admission scheme for the first year and taking in 60 children  (it admitted 30 children in both Year R and Year 1 directly for 2019).

The most oversubscribed school is Wentworth (A) with 33 disappointed first choices, having shot up from just three in 2019, in spite of its below average KS2 performance measures. It is followed by St Anselm’s Catholic with 19 and Joyden’s Wood Infant (A) with 10 first choices turned away. The latter had 11 of the 12 vacancies in West Dartford in 2019, the transformation in outcomes again having no obvious reason.

Biggest loser is of course Dartford Bridge (A), which had 33 first choices turned away after news of its Special Measures Ofsted broke in 2019, but even then has four disappointed first choices this year. The other loser is Westgate, although it is also just full, having had 21 first choices losing out in 2019. The three schools with vacancies are Temple Hill (23, out of 120 places) Holy Trinity CofE (three) and Wilmington (A), six, although with inward migration and rising rolls in the District many of these will have vanished by September.

The East of the District is naturally dominated by the growth of Ebbsfleet Garden City.  Another new school, Ebbsfleet Green Primary (F), is opening in September with applications made directly to the school outside the Kent co-ordinated admissions scheme. Unfortunately, delays to the building programme have led to temporary premises being adopted nine miles away from the permanent site.  It will join Cherry Orchard Primary Academy (F) opened in 2018, currently oversubscribed by 20 first choices, many of whom will presumably transfer to the new school in September.  The next new school at Alkerden is due to arrive in 2022, which will be part of an all-through school. Three other schools of the 16 in the area are significantly oversubscribed, headed up by The Brent (A), the second most oversubscribed school in Kent, turning away 44 first choices, although this number has fallen from the 86 of 2019 to lose its top spot, presumably as families become more realistic.  Nearby Gateway (A) with 28 disappointed, and its excellent KS2 results last summer, also continues to be very popular. Craylands with 14 oversubscribed presumably benefits from the continued unpopularity of Knockhall (A), recently looked at here following its Requires Improvement Ofsted inspection, but which has seen its vacancy rate leap to 53% of its 90 places in spite of eight Local Authority Allocations,  one of the highest percentages in Kent.

Out in the local villages, Bean Primary still struggles to attract pupils in spite of its Good Ofsted, up from RI, published just before applications closed, with 14 of its 30 places vacant.

Next: Dover, Deal & Sandwich; Faversham; Folkestone & Hythe; Gravesham; Maidstone 

In Dover, St Martin’s (A) again heads the list turning away 11 first choices, followed by Temple Ewell with eight. For another year, over half of the 20 schools have vacancies.  Not even Sibertswold, with 100% of children reaching the expected KS2 Level in 2019 can fill with six vacancies. 

The only school in decline in popularity is Selling (A), which has seen a sharp fall from having made 18 offers for its 30 places in 2019, to just eight for this year.

Bysing Wood (A), perennially struggling ot attract pupils, in spite of two consecutive Good Ofsted inspections, has also seen an increase in numbers for 2020, offering 29 places, although including 12 LAAs reflecting the pressures elsewhere. The school has a PAN of 60, having had this doubled by KCC for some reason, although it hasn’t filled even 30 places since then.  The school has now joined with three other East Kent primaries to academise and form the EKC. According to the most recent inspection, the headteacher is ‘held in high esteem by the local authority which views the curriculum you have developed as a model one’ and it is unclear of the source of the continued unpopularity although it dates back for at least 15 years.

There is no doubt that the main headline is the success of Brenzett CofE (A) in attracting a full house of 20 Reception pupils, for the first time after many years of failure under Kent County Council. It became an academy with the successful Canterbury Diocesan Trust and is one of a number of schools turned round from Special Measures to Good by the Trust. It has taken time to convince parents and in 2019 just five children were offered places. 

There are no serious problems with oversubscription across the whole Shepway district. Just one of the 36 schools is significantly oversubscribed as it has been for some years. Sandgate Primary has 26 first choices turned away this year, up from 14 in  2019. Three schools have 10: St Martin's CofE; Palmarsh; and Stowting CofE, with its superb KS2 results. 

However, the other main headline for Shepway is, as it has been for the last three years, the failure of Morehall (A) with 50% vacancies and Martello Primary (A)  47%, to attract pupils, by some way the highest vacancy rates in Folkestone, both schools being run by the appalling PR organisation that is Turner Schools. You will find the most recent of multiple articles about the Trust’s failures here. The Trust also runs the controversial all-through school, Folkestone Academy (A), but appears to have allowed the primary section to run on its own terms in the past, being an Outstanding school when it was separate. This clearly suffers reputational damage from being associated with Folkestone Academy and so it has been decided to split the two sections, waiting for approval to separate in September 2020. It has been oversubscribed for many years, but for 2020 has 10 vacancies, so clearly it is time for the break. The departure of the previous CEO is clearly an opportunity for the Trust to improve by focusing on the task of improvement. 

There is just one school with a higher vacancy rate than Morehall, the small rural Bodsham primary with 54% of its 13 places empty. In all 10 of Folkestone’s 17 schools have vacancies, and 11 of the 19 Hythe and rural schools.

This is the only area in town under pressure, although  Springhead Park School (F)opening  towards Ebbsfleet in September, creating 60 additional Reception places will ease this considerably. Exceptionally the new school will also take an unspecified number of pupils into years One to Four. As with all new schools, Springhead Park accepts applications directly in its first year,

Previously, KCC persuaded sponsors to pull out of a planned new school in the same area in 2018, on the false grounds it was not needed. They also did exactly the same once before arguing that a new school in the area would place the struggling and nearby Dover Road School (now Copperfield Academy) in jeopardy, resulting in a shortage of places for the past few years. Springhead Park could now well prove terminal at last for Copperfield Academy, as its standards have slipped even further, becoming by several measures the worst primary school in Kent. I looked most recently at Copperfield Academy (A)here. In 2019  the school was the only one of the eight Northfleet schools, with vacancies, having  just 31 first preferences (along with any children with Education Health Care Plans) with a total of 37 children offered places who applied for the school. There were 14 Local Authority Allocations.

For 2020, quite remarkably each of these situations has declined further, demonstrating the complete lack of faith in the school by local families. There were for 2020 admissions, 22 first preference offers for the 90 places (the lowest proportion in the whole of Kent); 29 children offered places who applied for the school (second lowest in the whole of Kent); 42 Local Authority Allocations (nearly twice as many as any other school in Kent and in any case the highest proportion).  Its Key Stage Two performance last summer, also placed it amongst the worst primary schools in the county. On the other hand, Ofsted thinks in a monitoring inspection that the school is doing a good job. With the new Springhead Park ready to rifle its current Years R to Three for September, many parents are likely vote with their feet.

There are 14 other vacancies, all in one school, the previously well regarded Shears Green Infants, which has traditionally been well oversubscribed. Many of the oversubscription pressures on other schools can be traced back to the problems of Copperfield as families try desperately to avoid it.  

The situation in Gravesend is very different, with four of the eleven schools being oversubscribed, the other seven having vacancies. The new primary section of the all-through St George’s CofE (A) has the highest level of oversubscription, turning away 17 first choices, followed by St John’s Catholic (A), last year's runaway leader, with 13. Next comes Kings Farm, oversubscribed for the first time ever, disappointing seven first choice families, having improved year on year since its disaster in 2014, initially described here. It then joined a Federation with Ifield Special School that proved its salvation. Its recent Good Ofsted and excellent KS2 Progress Level placing it sixth in the county, both reflect the remarkable transformation of the school.

Westcourt (A) has 21 vacancies, followed by Holy Trinity CofE with 20, hit by two nationally covered scandals in the past year. Next comes Tymberwood (A), the second school in Gravesham to be run by REach2 with 19. The Commissioning Plan reports that one primary school in west Gravesend will reduce its PAN by 30 places, because of the surplus, although no sign of this.

The seven village schools in the District are all oversubscribed apart from Vigo Village Primary to the south. Several of the others, especially Cobham (20 disappointed first choices) draw pupils from out of Gravesend, and in the case of Istead Rise (A), 15, now much improved following re-brokering, from Northfleet. The Commissioning Plan considers that any future shortage (although) it has already arrived!) will be met by surplus places elsewhere, presumably in urban Gravesend!

Three of those which may be affected include nearby St John’s CofE (A) which is currently the most oversubscribed primary school in Kent, with 55 disappointed first choices, and the second highest proportion of first choices per place. Others include Valley Invicta (East Borough) (A) 30 children unsuccessful; and Greenfields (A) 26, although their very popularity may enable them to keep pupils. Thurnham CofE Infants, Madginford and Sandling, all oversubscribed to a lesser extent, may also lose pupils. Other popular schools are South Borough (A) with its excellent KS2 results and St Michael’s CofE, turning away 23 first choices; Langley Park (F), a new Free School, four years old, in a growth area of the town with 22 first choice families losing out; and Loose (A) with 21,  but sharply down from the 48 of 2019. 

Coincidentally, the two schools with five vacancies each out of the 12 in total, Jubilee (F) and Tiger (F), were both set up as Free Schools, Jubilee by an Evangelical Christian Group and Tiger  whose Ofsted rating fell from Good to RI, along with some of the poorest KS2 results in Kent last summer, by the Future Schools Academy Trust. Four other schools only filled by significant numbers of Local Authority Allocations, most at Archbishop Courtenay (A) with 23, with some of the poorest KS2 results in Kent, and Molehill (A) with 20 although now armed with a Good Ofsted, two schools which have both struggled for too many years.

The Commissioning Plan is quite gloomy over provision in town: ‘This town centre pressure will be mitigated via places available in the Maidstone North planning group with the September 2020 opening of the new 2FE Bearsted Primary Academy Free School. Forecasting methodology uses existing travel to school flows to distribute Reception pupils from each primary planning group into individual primary schools’. i.e. There aren’t and won’t be sufficient places locally and children will need to be sent elsewhere.  

The situation outside the town is very different with none of the 20 schools being significantly oversubscribed. Bredhurst is oversubscribed by 10 first choices losing out for just 15 places, and Hollingbourne with five.   There are just four other schools oversubscribed by one or two families losing out. 

Of the twelve schools with vacancies, four have over half of their places empty. Three of these have just four pupils offered places in Reception for September: Laddingford St Mary’s CofE (PAN of 13), continuation of a steady decline over recent years; Leeds and Bromfield CofE (PAN of 15), also with five or fewer pupils in two other age groups, second lowest achieving school at KS2 in 2019; and Platts Heath (PAN of 13),  normally much higher. One problem with schools serving small rural communities is that numbers can vary considerably year on year, but one can only wonder how long some of these small schools will survive independently, although Leeds & Bromfield and Platts Heath are already part of the Aspire Federation of four small village schools.

Next: Malling (including Kings Hill); Sevenoaks; Sheppey; Sittingbourne; Swanley

The most oversubscribed school is Valley Invicta School at Aylesford (A), with 23 first choices rejected for its 30 places. However, the PAN of 30 is somewhat puzzling. Until 2019 the Planned Admission Number was 45, but for the past two years the Valley Invicta Academy Trust has raised the intake to 60 children, with most Year Groups now having 50 or more children. For 2020, the PAN was reduced to 30 children, although no explanation is offered for this reduction and presumably the accommodation is there with the larger numbers leaving at the top end. Hence 23 families deprived of their first choice.

Of the other ten oversubscribed schools, only three have rejected more than four first choices. These are Valley Invicta (Holborough Lakes) (A) at Snodland, turning away 18 first choices, serving a major new housing development, Ryarsh with 12, perennially popular with its Outstanding Ofsted dating back to 2012, and Brookfield Infant (very close to Aylesford), nine.  A few years ago, the three Kings Hill primary schools were all oversubscribed, with some children being diverted to West Malling, but numbers have fallen perhaps as families have matured, and just two families lost out on their first choice across the community.

Plenty of vacancies, including four schools with more than a third of their places empty. A few years ago, West Malling (A) was very popular, but has lost its attraction with 16 of its 30 places unfilled on allocation. The other three are also well down on previous years Burham CofE has half its 28 places unfilled, well down on previous years. Platt CofE has 10 vacancies out of 26, again well down on previous years.

I split the large hinterland of Sevenoaks into three sub districts, Rural, Rural East and Swanley, the last named forming a separate section.

The main rural area has 21 schools, with eight oversubscribed, but only two in double figures. These are Chiddingstone CofE with 20 unsuccessful first preferences and Crockham Hill CofE with 12. These were also the two top schools last year, but the numbers not getting first preferences are up for 2020.

There are two schools with more than a half of their places unfilled: Churchill CofE, Westerham, whose Ofsted outcome improved to Good arrived to late for admission numbers, with 38 vacancies out of 60; and Halstead which always struggles for numbers, and has slipped back to Requires Improvement, with 15 unfilled places out of 25.

Of the six rural Sevenoaks schools to the East, four are full, led by Ofsted Outstanding Hartley Primary Academy (A), oversubscribed by 21 first choices and  New Ash Green with ten. Horton Kirby CofE (A) with 16 vacancies out of 45 has recently had a Short Inspection where Ofsted found concerns, so it could slip back to RI. West Kingsdown CofE, which has finally had a Good Ofsted after a long period of concern, did at least see an improvement in numbers up to 24 of its 45 places filled, although with seven LAAs.

Two schools which regularly struggle for numbers had over a third of their places empty again. Thistle Hill (A) was ruined by the unlamented Lilac Sky Academy Trust three years ago, but does not seem to have recovered, with poor KS2 results, and 22 vacancies out of 60 places. Eastchurch, somewhat remote on the far east of the island with two sites several miles apart, a recent Requires Improvement Ofsted and recent difficulties,  continues to struggle to attract children with 21 of its 60 places left empty.   

Last year five schools in and near the town of Sittingbourne had vacancies, with 715 offers of Reception places made in total. This year all but two of the 15 schools are oversubscribed as the number of children has leapt to 781, an increase of 8% in twelve months. There are 4% of empty spaces, second lowest proportion in the county. Strangely, the Kent Schools Commissioning Plan (page 123) does not identify this as a problem, identifying a surplus of 13.7% of places across the whole of Swale, whereas it is just Sittingbourne itself with the problem.

The Kent Plan identifies pressure to the north of the town, which apparently can be eased in future years by children taking up places in other areas. It is hoped to have a new all through school for 2023/24 to meet a major development in this part of Sittingbourne, although there are no signs of any progress at present, which may help to ease pressures. Any other pressures will be eased by expanding Sunny Bank School (A) although this is against KCC policy as the school failed its Ofsted last year. The Report made a withering attack on leadership and KCC support, which combined with its dreadful KS2 results last summer, led to an Academy Order and it has now been taken over by the Island Trust. At first glance Sunny Bank has filled for September, which may have taken KCC in, but this is only because of the 19 LAA children allocated to the school, the fifth highest figure in Kent. The Plan forecasts 51 Reception vacancies for the town schools in September, against an actual total of 34.

101 children did not get their first choice school, the most oversubscribed being Canterbury Road again, oversubscribed by 21, followed by Kemsley (A) with 19, another school taken out of KCC control after failing its Ofsted. Then come Iwade (A) and Tunstall CofE with 17; the latter with its Outstanding Ofsted having navigated a difficult period after doubling in size to 60, relocating to the outskirts of town to ease the ‘non-existent’ pressure, and seeing 7 vacancies in 2019. Bobbing (A) has 14 disappointed first choices, Oaks Community Infants(A)  had 13 and South Avenue (A), 10.

The two schools with vacancies are St Peter’s Catholic with nine, 30% of its total and a school that is usually oversubscribed, and Westlands (A) with 25 out of 90, which continues to bump along at the bottom of the table.

Away from the town, Bapchild & Tonge CofE is oversubscribed by six first choices, and Rodmersham with its consistently high KS2 performance and Outstanding Ofsted, oversubscribed by five, half of the ten schools having vacancies.

Next: Thanet; Tonbridge;Tunbridge Wells; Junior Schools

Over half of the Thanet primary schools have vacancies. Drapers Mill (A), Margate, TKAT Academy has 57% of its places unfilled in spite of its Good Ofsted Report and above average KS2 Progress performance, followed by Dame Janet (A), Ramsgate, 54%, TKAT Academy, Good Ofsted but below average Progress; Salmestone (A), Margate 53%, TKAT, Good Ofsted but very low KS2 Progress results last summer; St Joseph’s Catholic (A), 50%; Northdown (A), Margate 42% also run by TKAT, but Requires Improvement; Ellington Infant, 32%, Ramsgate. Whatever TKAT is doing to improve standards it doesn’t appear to ride well with parents.   

Three schools normally top the vacancy list, one of which was Royal Rise (A), now a Cygnus Trust Academy (previously St Stephen’s when it failed its Ofsted as a KCC school ). The other two are Longmead, with 63% of its Reception places empty for September, and in Federation with the nearby Hugh Christie secondary school, Good Ofsted in September 2019 up from RI,  and Cage Green, taken over as an academy last July, by Connect Schools, having failed its Ofsted shortly before. Five other schools also have vacancies.

Temple Grove (A) appears to be improving in popularity year on year from being the least popular in TW in years past, and is full again for 2020, without the large number of LAAs which propped it up in 2019.

Rusthall St Paul’s CofE again has the highest proportion of vacancies at 30% of its total of 30 available, but this is a significant improvement on 2019. Going the other way is Pembury, full last year with 22% of its 60 places empty. St Augustine’s Catholic (A) also has 22% vacant spaces.   

This year all but one of the 1934 children applying for places at one or more of these schools was offered their first choice, a remarkable statistic, given that there were 34 in 2019.

Two schools have 20% or more vacancies (down from five in 2019) which may depend on other factors than their own reputation such as the number coming through from the linked Infant school, or other opportunities in the area. The dip in Tenterden Junior School numbers with 38% vacancies appears to reflect a parallel fall in Year Two at the linked Infant School. Christ Church CofE Juniors in Thanet has 25% vacancies but no specific linked Infant school. North Borough Junior, Maidstone with 22% vacancies, but none in 2019, appears to have lost some who would normally transfer from the linked St Paul’s Infant.

You have the right to go on the waiting list for, and appeal for any school on your application form, where you have not been offered a place. You also have the right to make a late application in Kent to any school that was not on your original list, on or after 15th June, when the first reallocation of vacant places takes place to children already on the waiting list. You should use the KCC In Year Application Form and send it directly to all schools you are interested in as you choose, that were not on your application list. You are not restricted to just one school at a time. KCC will tell you which local schools still have vacancies on the day you enquire. This will not damage your chances at any school for which you are on the waiting list. If you are appealing and are offered a place at one of these schools in advance it may be taken into account. However, with the very low chances of success at appeal (see below), this is a risk worth taking.  

A large  number of children are offered places off waiting lists, most setting off a ‘churning process’ freeing up other places. You have nothing to lose from going on the waiting list for as many schools as you  wish. Sadly, chances of success at appeal are negligible in nearly all cases, as explained below.