Oversubscription & Vacancies Kent Non-Selective Secondary Schools 2020

This article follows on from my initial survey of 2020 allocations, containing further data at Kent Secondary allocations.You will find the equivalent article here for 2019 allocations. Please note that it is written for and read by a number of different audiences, so not all may be of interest or relevance for families. 

You will find my initial and more general thoughts here, with the parallel article on grammar schools for 2019 here (2020 to follow) and 2020 Medway schools grammar and non-selective. A net total of 162 additional places have been created to meet a rise of 149 in the number of pupils offered Kent schools. This leaves 494 vacancies, or 3.5% of the total. 

The new Maidstone School of Science and Technology, opening in September, has offered 180 further places (together with holding a waiting list) which are not included in these figures as the school is not yet part of the Kent admissions scheme. This may pose an existential threat to two other Maidstone schools.

I look at individual Districts further down the article, with direct links at: 

Page 2: Ashford; Canterbury; Dartford; 

Page 3: Dover, Deal & Sandwich; Folkestone and Hythe; Gravesham; 

Page 4: Maidstone; Sevenoaks; Swale; 

Page 5: Thanet; Tonbridge & Malling; Tunbridge Wells

Last year there was just one new arrival in the list of schools oversubscribed by more than fifty places, this year there are four:  Wye and John Wallis, reflecting the major development of Ashford, Stone Lodge, the new school in Dartford, and Hillview Girls in Tonbridge. Two have gone, Charles Dickens in Thanet, and St Anselm’s in Canterbury. In one sense I am describing a misleading picture as, for some of these schools their popularity is increased by a desire to avoid another school with perceived difficulties, as explained below.  Some commentators seek to criticise such parents for chasing popular schools, but the reality is often very different.  

The picture will change from now until September, successful grammar school appeals taking children out of the sector and creating a ripple effect as children move up to preferred schools through re-allocation where places have been freed. In addition, some of these schools also admit significant numbers of additional children on appeal (but see below), those at the other end of the scale suffering even further.The Individual School section contains relevant detail here.

The polarisation referred to in my introduction continues apace, as can be seen by comparison of the table below with the equivalent 2018 article, and the District surveys below. The latter article listed just seven schools with a vacancy rate of more than a third before LAAs are added in. Now there are eleven with 40% or more vacancies. I have chosen the 40% cut off this time round because the next school in the 2020 list was a long way down from this level, with just 23% empty spaces before LAAs were taken into account. All the seven schools in the 2018 list are also in the current one.

 The final column, '% Loss 2019’' looks back to 2019 data. Here I have compared the March allocation figure with the number of Year Seven children who actually turned up, according to the October 2019 school census. It is no coincidence that the six schools with the highest percentage losses are all in that 2018 table of vacancies. The losses will have come from children taking up places at preferred schools where vacancies have developed (or in some cases private schools) together with an indeterminate number leaving for Home Education, rather than send their children to these schools.

A school’s finances are based primarily on the number of pupils in the school and my articles through the years have identified half a dozen secondary schools that have been forced to close through lack of numbers, most recently Pent Valley School, Hextable Academy and Chaucer Technology School. I can see two further schools that I consider are at risk.     

* Hartsdown Academy came third in this list separating the Brook schools, with just 65 first choices. 

I have written critically about the Brook Trust before, it is clearly still in considerable trouble and is the subject of a further article in progress.

 District Survey

 ** Excluding Duke of York's Royal Military School (Boarding only)

Kent children having been offered Out of County Non-Selective Places (around 280 in 2019): Bexley 69 (St Catherine's Catholic 19, Haberdasher's Aske's Crayford Academy 15, St Columba's Catholic Boys' 10, Blackfen Girls, 6, 2019 - 53);  Bromley 14 (2019-21); East Sussex 61 (Uplands 44, Beacon 7, Robertsbridge 6,  2019 -68); Medway 59 (Greenacre 16, Rainham Girls 9, Howard 7,  2019 -41); Surrey 37 (Oxted 35, 2019 -62).

 Unfortunately, whilst the three points above may well be aims for KCC, my District Survey below shows that there is considerable shortfall in the first two of these. I appreciate this section may not be of interest to most of my readers, so please follow the link to read on. 

You will find full data for each school in the Individual Schools Section of this website. Currently, the large data bank is up to date, although commentary is lagging behind in a few cases where indicated (update in progress, or on request).

There are new secondary schools in the pipeline to cater for future housing developments; but the first of these at Chilmington Green is not due until 2022, so existing schools will need to expand further to pick up the shortfall.   

The big loser is, as is to be expected, Ebbsfleet Academy with 29 of the 32 vacancies in the District (there were none last year), and 31 LAAs. However, under a new headteacher, this is better than it could have been with the notorious Alison Colwell having fled to run a private school in Mallorca. She is seeking to exact her revenge with a book to be published in August. This is reportedly an exposé of her experiences at Ebbsfleet under the title of ‘The Secret Headteacher’. The puff for this (a previous version, since deleted, identifies the author) predictably contains one of the many falsehoods claimed about the school under her headship.

Also losing out is the Inspiration Leigh Academy oversubscribed since its opening three years ago, but now allocated 18 children as LAAs and still with three vacancies. This is intended to bolt on to the struggling Leigh UTC, very short of numbers with its entry at Year 10 admitting just 40 pupils in a school with PAN 120 in 2019. The whole setup is starting to look very shaky. Every other school is oversubscribed.

Around 75 out of county children have been offered places in Dartford secondary schools, the large majority from Bexley, with a similar number crossing the border the other way.  With Ebbsfleet Garden City expanding at great pace, there is sufficient capacity in the District, until 2021-22 when the Alkerden School comes on stream.

Omitting DOYRMS, The District has 7% vacancies, second highest in Kent, all 63 being at Astor College, its popularity having slumped and also offering all Dover’s 34 LAAs. The school's one saving grace is picking up 12 pupils last year between allocation and the October census, some of whom may be refugees, others refugees from Folkestone Academy. Every other school is oversubscribed. St Edmund's Catholic School, last year full for the first time in many years, has continued to grow in strength. The school has the fifth highest increase in first choices in the county, up by 44. It has turned first choices away for the first time and becoming the most oversubscribed school in the District with 31 families disappointed.  Dover Christ Church Academy has admitted another 30 pupils increasing its PAN to 180 for the first time and is close behind St Edmund's, having seen its number of first choices increase by 40. Goodwin Academy is also full for the first time in many years, after the scandal of SchoolsCompany, having been taken over by Thinking Schools Academy Trust. 

Brockhill Park in Hythe is the most oversubscribed school in the District, disappointing 54 first choice families, while the rural Marsh Academy continues to recruit well and for the first time has turned away first choices, seven in number. It is likely that some families from the Marsh, drawn to Brockhill in the past, can no longer access it, because of the flow from Folkestone.  

When MSST opens, the children it draws from other schools will create a churning effect, as children move up to fill gaps opening in the more popular schools. This inevitably reaches through to the two schools at risk, Cornwallis and New Line Learning academies, both run by the Future Schools Trust. These two schools have 132 Local Authority Allocations between them. The only six vacancies currently in Maidstone are at Cornwallis which does not appear in the above county vacancy list, but still has 21% empty spaces before LAAs, at present. The problem is exacerbated by the annual high number of successful appeals at the four Maidstone grammar schools which last year absorbed 187 further children. These are drawn mainly from the same two schools after trickle down. The KCC Commissioning Plan for Maidstone non-selective places forecast there would be a surplus of 607 places in September 2020 after MSST came on line. This is a figure larger than the total capacity of Cornwallis and New Line Learning academies! 

Unfortunately, this hardly touches the issue of the large number of Sheppey families trying to avoid Oasis Academy Isle of Sheppey (OAIOS). These, along with families, often to the south of the town, who would have looked to Fulston Manor  are desperately seeking schools on the mainland but instead themselves part of the 101 Local Authority Allocations at OAIOS (second highest figure in Kent and over 30 more than ever before). This still left the school with 66 vacancies, also the second highest figure in Kent. Each year when I was offering individual professional advice, I received enquiries from large numbers of these families at their wits end and refusing to consider Oasis with its awful reputation. Only last week I took a phone call from a professional who told me about the large number of reports of bullying at the school which they received. I am not convinced any of these families will find the KCC view acceptable.

Not surprisingly Fulston Manor and Westlands schools in Sittingbourne are both in the top six most oversubscribed schools in Sittingbourne, although last year they took very different routes through the appeal process. The Fulston Manor Appeal Panel has not upheld more than seven cases (one per class) in the past six years at least, so the successes will be very special cases.  Westlands upheld 51 out of 52 appeals, but may of course go down a different route this year. The problem has reached crisis levels, with KCC's estimated shortage of  144 Year Seven non-selective  places in Sittingbourne next year, rising to 192 in 2023. The Commissioning Plan recognises there will need to be another six forms of entry in 2023, but puts through no solution. Some years ago, a new school was proposed, but there is now no mention of this. Oasis saw a fall of 51 potential Year Seven children between allocation and the October school census last year. The decline in Oasis numbers has seen the school mothball one of its two sites, but for how long. Reopening surely cannot be the solution to the coming crisis, but where is there an alternative for those 192 children  Some families desperate enough to avoid the school home educate with around 150 families on the Island trying this at present! This should not be happening. Girls might like to try Rainham School for Girls in Medway.

The Sittingbourne School saw the second highest increase in first choices in the county, at 55 taking it to 21 first choices oversubscribed. It still did not appear to have any appeals last year, and Abbey School, Faversham, which is slowly losing out in popularity to the much improved Whitstable, just filled. 

According to the now out of date Commissioning Plan, 'Forecasts indicate a deficit of places for both Year 7 and Years 7-11 over the Plan period. In the short-term this increased demand will be met through temporary additional Year 7 places at Royal Harbour Academy, whilst bringing forward the permanent expansion of King Ethelbert School by 2FE for September 2022. Ursuline College will expand by 1FE later in the plan period to meet the forecast need from 2023'. Meanwhile, the misery for too many parents continues, with 187 children being allocated to Hartsdown and Royal Harbour academies through the LAA process, having tried to avoid the two schools. These are both managed by the Coastal Academies Trust along with King Ethelbert, the second most oversubscribed school in Kent, meaning the Trust controls over half of the secondary places in Thanet.  

St George’s CofE, whilst still the third most oversubscribed non-selective school in Kent, is declining in popularity! This year 129 first choices were turned down, against 2019’s 182, the fall possibly reflecting the disappointing GCSE performance in 2019. Performance is still significantly better than Hartsdown, Royal Harbour and Charles Dickens, three of the lowest five performers in Progress 8 GCSE in Kent.

It has now been overtaken by King Ethelbert, with 144 disappointed first choices. The other two oversubscribed schools are Charles Dickens, which has fallen from 77 to 37 first choices declined, and Ursuline College, which has chosen to reduce its intake back to 150 from the 180 of the two previous years, and is oversubscribed by 24 places (23 in 2019).

The previous link also provides much background information to the following data for Hartsdown and Royal Harbour, as my most recent article on the decision to reinstate the new Thanet Skies Academy.  

A further issue in the District is that 79 local grammar qualified pupils have been rejected from their first choice grammar school, so it is unlikely that many will be taken out of these two schools through grammar school appeals.

I have written previously about the avoidable disaster that led to Holmesdale  being placed in Special Measures following repeated failures by KCC to take action. A more recent article contains further revelations about KCC’s failures. The school is now rapidly improving its standards under the leadership of Swale Academies Trust with a much better GCSE performance and pupils no longer leaving the school during the course; however it takes time to rebuild a school’s reputation. As a result, there are still 70 LAAS out of the school’s 155 offers, and it currently depends on children from Medway to keep it afloat. 

Hayesbrook School continues on a downward slide as GCSE performance continues to decline from being the fourth highest performing Kent non-selective school in 2015 to Well Below Average and one of the lowest Kent performers in 2019. This will no doubt have influenced its current sorry state where it depends on pressure for places in Tunbridge Wells to keep afloat (see below). 56 of the 133 places awarded were LAAs, more than the number of first choices, at 54 the lowest number of any school in the county. Even more worrying, last year 59 of the 130 pupils offered places in March 2019, did not arrive in the school according to the following October census. That is 45% of the original number of places allocated, the highest dropout rate in the county. There is an item about the Brook Learning Trust which runs the school, earlier in this article. 

The crisis in secular non-selective provision in Tunbridge Wells is set out clearly in my 2018 article, which explains how a new school was lost through lack of a sponsor, and drawing on the Kent Commissioning Plan for 2018 which set out the need. The 2019 Plan was much less clear about the problem, stating that: 'the strategic response to this demand is a proposed 6FE expansion of an existing school or a new school from 2021-22'. There is no explanation how this is to be achieved, and the idea of expanding an existing school by 6 FE, is mind boggling. The 2020 Plan loses the problem completely recording that:

The use of the term ‘permanent’ makes it unclear if this extra provision, presumably at Skinners Kent Academy, is in addition to its current intake of 240 pupils, or if it is merely consolidation of the 60 places put in last year. 

So how is this sleight of hand achieved? Quite simply by spreading the children across a ‘Planning Group’ vision that takes in Tonbridge and Cranbrook, with some Tunbridge Wells boys unable to access local schools being dispatched to Hayesbrook (56 LAAs) and, I suspect, mainly local girls off to High Weald (32 LAAs), 20 miles away - last year some came from as far away as Edenbridge. TW girls cannot access the heavily oversubscribed Hillview School in Tonbridge. That totals up to 88 Tunbridge Wells children excluded from schools in their own town. There is still plenty of room in the low performing Hayesbrook and High Weald schools, both Brook Learning Trust Schools, see earlier item. 

High Weald Academy in Cranbrook, has recently had a major building programme, at a cost of some £13 million, replacing most of its older buildings. This has to be a high risk strategy, as the school has seen for some years the  biggest vacancy rate in the county along with a regular replacement programme of leaders in a vain attempt to improve matters, but no doubt the new premises were seen as an attraction to improve matters. Perhaps because the premises works were not completed by the time secondary admission forms were submitted in November, this hasn't worked yet, attracting just 55 first preferences with 96 places being offered in total for a school with a PAN of 180, at 36% the highest vacancy rate in Kent.  

Apart from the lack of the planned new school, the root of the problem lies with the two church schools. Bennett Memorial Diocesan School, which is consistently the highest performing (together with attainment) non-selective school in Kent and amongst the most oversubscribed, turning away 85 first choices this year. A key factor in this success is its highly selective religious criteria for admission, across seven categories, which only give limited priority to distance from the school. As a result, 41 places are going to Out Of County children this year (39 from East Sussex), and many others will be drawn from outside TW, at the expense of local children. St Gregory’s Catholic, 37 first choices disappointed, has a similar complex arrangement, but with just eight children from East Sussex. This leaves just one secular school in TW, Skinners Kent Academy, with 12 first choices oversubscribed for its 240 places, having expanded from 180 last year. 51 children from the area have decamped to East Sussex schools, 44 of them to Uplands Community College, the nearest school to TW.

Mascalls School in Paddock Wood has seen a sharp loss in popularity for reasons that are unclear, down by 59. but still leaving just one vacancy. 

Last year I finished this section with:'In other words, KCC does not know either where  the needed additional places are coming from or where they are going to place non-selective children who don’t qualify for faith schools, an issue that is not even mentioned!' The quotation still stands.

 Unfortunately, whilst the three points above may well be aims for KCC, my District Survey above shows that there is considerable shortfall in the first two of these. I appreciate this section may not be of interest to most of my readers.

I don’t intend to carry out a full analysis of the 162 pages, but draw some observations from the secondary schools section. It is unfortunate that the target is immediately nullified by the statement: ‘For this iteration, we have reverted back to publishing forecasts that do not include the pupil places required to support planned housing and therefore they  will need to be read in that context’ . In previous years KCC has taken planned housing into account which makes sense. It is some years since I had a public argument with the then Director of Education for Kent, who insisted that county policy was only to build new schools after there were sufficient pupils to fill them. The new policy appears to revert to those days, when the ambition to provide places for all learners saw some being allocated schools in other towns, although in reality we are already there in Sittingbourne and Tunbridge Wells.

This shift in policy may have followed the current debacle in Thanet, where planned housing has not arrived at the rate expected, a new school has been cancelled, although as a result, 187 families are allocated to schools they did not apply for and which are not regarded locally as of high quality. A reported 150 families on the Isle of Sheppey home school rather than send their children to the local school, unable to get a place in one of the three Sittingbourne schools, all bulging at the seams.

Whatever, the shift in policy accompanies an optimistic short term plan, which now assumes that schools in various parts of the county will be able to expand to whatever size meets the need, never mind the clear statement in the document that the recommended size of secondary schools should be between six and eight forms of entry.

It is certainly not KCC’s fault that whilst they are responsible for providing a school place for every pupil, they are not given the power to bring this about, nor to provide enough high quality education places located in the right areas. This is partly because Academy Trusts now run three quarters of Kent secondary schools, and in addition problems with finding sponsors, getting approval and planning have seen delays in getting most new schools off the ground.

However, surely one function of the plan is to identify problems which it clearly does not, instead papering over the cracks, presumably hoping that 'something will turn up'. And so we are left with the situation in Tunbridge Wells where a proposed new school failed to find a sponsor, and KCC now appears to have whitewashed the school and its six forms of entry out of its planning, instead expanding the eight form entry Skinners Kent Academy by two more classes if it allows, and dispatching those children unable to be accommodated to schools in Cranbrook, twenty miles away, and Tonbridge as is already happening. In Sittingbourne large numbers of pupils are offered places on the Isle of Sheppey where many families are taking whatever steps possible to avoid the local school. In Thanet, KCC policy is in ruins.