Oversubscription & Vacancies Kent Grammar Schools 2020

Please note that some numbers are approximate for two reasons. Pupils on Education Health Care Plans are not included in the data I have been provided with and I have estimated these. Secondly KCC does not provide exact figures where numbers are less than five, which for example explains the approximation in ooc figures. For simplicity I have used my best estimate in such circumstances. 

You will find: the equivalent article for 2020 Kent non-selective schools here; an initial article on allocation here, that also provides cut off scores for the super selective schools; the 2019 equivalent article here; and for Medway grammar schools here.  

You will find application numbers, appeal statistics and academic performance for the past few years, together with the Ofsted record for each school at the Individual Schools section of this website. Please let me know of any not up to date that you would wish to see, and I will revise them.  

Please note that all statistics in this website refer to grammar qualified children, both via the Kent Test and also through local Tests available through six grammar schools as explained below. My analysis of 2019 Kent Test outcomes for 2020 entry is here.   

To find allocation details and commentary for Individual Schools in:

Immediately below is  a full list of those schools oversubscribed by more than 25 first choices (grammar qualified) over places. This pattern will change following re-allocation and successful appeals in coming months, which can alter the picture significantly, as schools admit additional pupils. In some cases these are drawn from other grammars. Last year 29% of the 1,982 Kent grammar school appeals were successful ranging from none at Dartford Girls through to 86% at Highsted, followed by 70% at Simon Langton Girls and 66% at Maidstone Girls. 

Apart from the Thanet oversubscription, the biggest individual surprise is probably at Skinners in the second year of its new admission criteria. The increase in the aggregate pass score in the Kent Test explained here, whilst not changing the proportion of children passing, has had an unintended consequence at the school. This has seen the cut off distance for the majority of offers shrinking dramatically as explained below.   

All appeals at the six schools in the table below will be from children with a non-selective decision after the Kent Test procedure and most of the vacancies will vanish after appeals and late applications. Last year there were just four schools with vacancies at the October 2019 census in Year Seven: Dover Grammar Boys’ with 15; Tunbridge Wells Boys with 13 (having increased its Admission number by 30); Norton Knatchbull 10 (admission umber increased by 60); and Oakwood Park 2.

Four schools with vacancies in 2019 filled this year: Barton Court  (5 empty spaces last year now one first choice oversubscribed); Borden (16 last year, 9); Highworth (21 last year, 2);  Oakwood Park (41 last year, 0);

Individual School Survey. This looks at the situation for each Kent grammar school, below, including the number of first choices offered. At my request, KCC included the number of children with Education Health Care Plans offered places in these figures, otherwise they would have redacted this information (as happened last year).

In fact, is very difficult to win an appeal at any of the four Dartford grammar schools in spite of the very high numbers of appellants; a total of 18 upheld out of 426 in 2019.

The new Ebbsfleet Garden City continues to expand, planned to provide 15,000 homes at a rapid pace, with a number of new schools being included as explained here. However, government legislation forbids the provision of new grammar schools so, at present the four Wilmington and Gravesend grammars are expanding to meet the need. The Kent Schools Commissioning Plan (KSCP) identifies the additional one form of entry at Gravesend Grammar School which has been provided to meet the need this year. Two more forms of entry for the Gravesend grammars are planned in 2021-22. In Dartford, there are to be two more forms of entry in 2021-22, which presumably match the much needed two additional forms of entry provided at the two Wilmington grammar schools one year early for 2020, with another two in the District in three years time, unspecified. With the two Dartford grammars determined to keep their exclusive character, and the Wilmingtons’ on a limited size site, it is difficult to see where these places will be provided. Unfortunately, Kent County Council has decided its KSCP (Page 5) will not consider the effect of  further provision for planned housing developments and does not mention Ebbsfleet, so we can expect further capacity problems ahead. 

The knock-on effect of all this pressure follows right along the Thames coast to Chatham, where Holcombe Grammar offered 42 places to Kent and London families, and Rochester Grammar 83.   

Wilmington Grammar Boys has given priority to local boys for several years, but is often placed second to Dartford Grammar which partly explains why 106  of the 180 places went to lower choices and only  74 of 134 first choices were offered places. The school also gives a priority to siblings and siblings of pupils at Wilmington Girls, partly explaining why 18 ooc boys are still being offered places at the school, although the number continues to fall. 

Gravesend Grammar has increased its PAN in two stages to 210 boys up from the 150 of 2017 to meet the pressure from Ebbsfleet. The school markets itself as a local grammar, so it is not surprising that 175 of the 185 first choices were offered places. 8 of the 12 occ places went to boys from Thurrock, just a short distance from the school across the Thames by ferry. Apart from siblings, Thurrock boys would be unlikely to gain places in 2021 as the school has changed its oversubscription criteria to prioritise Ebbsfleet boys after those who live locally.  

The pattern for the girls’ grammars is similar but far less severe, Dartford Girls having started chasing London pupils more recently. Required aggregate scores have risen again, with local girls (from a wider area than the boys' school) being required to score at least 372 (up from 359 in 2019), with outers 393 (up from 385).There were 404 first choices of which 158 were offered places, second only to Dartford Grammar in terms of rejected first choices. In the last four years there have been just five successful appeals, a record low for any school, and including none in 2019.

Wilmington Girls changed four years ago to give main priority to local girls, but the number from London has not gone down so fast as the boys; school and is still 46. There were 133 first choices for 180 places (down from 148 in 2019), of which 97 were offered places. 

Mayfield Grammar in Gravesend admits girls through its own Test, as well as through the Kent Test, with 13 being offered places who did not pass the Kent Test, down from the 33 of 2019 (see Table below).  Further details here. 173 first choices for its 180 places, of which 165 were offered places. Few than five offered from out of county. 

The super selective Judd School has kept its position as the most oversubscribed West Kent grammar with 327 first choices for its intake of 180 boys, of which 160 were offered places. Clearly the decision to give priority to local boys in 2018  continues to prove very popular, with just 17 boys from out of county, the same figure as in 2019.  The Inner residential area cut off score rose to 385 up from 376 (down to 373 after re-allocation), with outers reaching the stratospheric requirement of 407, also up from 402, the maximum available being 421. In  part the higher required scores are because of the increase in the aggregate pass score from 321 to 330.

The second year of the new Skinners admission criteria brought their own shock to many parents, as the main criterion for boys in the priority area as living nearest with a score of 360 saw the distance limit shrink from 10.099 miles to 3.294. This cuts out most of those living in Tonbridge as well as all of Sevenoaks and District. I have already looked at the reasons for this in some detail here. The school is once again fourth most oversubscribed in Kent, turning away 148 first choices for its 160 places. Only four out of 56 appeals upheld in 2019.

The recent expansions at Judd and Skinners, both attracting many more first choices, have hit Tunbridge Wells Grammar School for Boys with just 81 first choices for its 210 places, but still turning 17 of these away. As a result it has cut back to PAN from the 240 places it has offered for the two previous years. There was a cut off distance of 14.9 miles for boys living in the named parishes, up from 13.38 miles last year. This is at the very furthest extent of the named parishes, all in Kent, to the north of Badgers Mount. However it still excludes boys living much closer in Kent outside these parishes, for example at Matfield, less than five miles away. There were fewer than five ooc boys offered places, probably siblings. There will be plenty of grammar qualified second choices who also failed to get in to one of the super selectives who will have appealed, so it is quite likely that, the school will go back to admitting up to 240 boys through the appeals. Preparations for a new annexe for TWGSB in Sevenoaks are advanced, which will also ease pressure on the Dartford grammar schools. There is some turnover, less than in previous years according to the 2019 census, caused by pupils being pulled out of West Kent grammars for private schools accompanied by a trading up to the super selectives. 

Even with Weald of Kent Grammar School’s expansion to 295 places through its Sevenoaks Annexe, now in its fourth year, it is still oversubscribed by 27 first choices, although it has the largest ooc intake in West Kent, offering 55 places to girls in Bromley and East Sussex.  

Tonbridge Grammar School also gives a priority to high scoring girls, with an aggregate of 380 for those in the Inner area (Tonbridge, Tunbridge Wells and Sevenoaks addresses), up from 371, and 399 for outers (up from 393). A very high 176 places went to first choices out of 180 offered, the highest proportion of any oversubscribed grammar school in Kent. That still leaves 105 first choices who were unsuccessful, fifth highest number in the county. Just 29 ooc places offered so some of the 35 outers will have come from further away in Kent. There were just 4 successful appeals for places out of 30 in 2019.

Tunbridge Wells Girls Grammar saw a sharp fall in first choices for some reason last year, but this is back up to 144 for its 145 places in 2020, with 29 first choices being turned away. Apart from 2019 when there were eight successful appeals, the Independent Appeal Panel had consistently upheld six for some years, the large majority being girls who had qualified for grammar school. 

Oakwood Park has filled for the first time in many years, offering all 160 places. The number of first choice boys has risen from 60 to 80 this year, but with 80 lower choices, it is likely to lose some of these to MGS and grammars in West Kent on appeal (one KCC Admissions adviser informed a parent they wouldn’t get a place on appeal because it was full!).  In 2019 when there were just 119 offers, 58% of the 127 appeals were upheld, but this is not likely for 2020.

Norton Knatchbull School, Ashford, made the largest number of offers ever with 187 for its 210 places, as the expansion of the town continues apace. 159 of these were first choices, but with the Maidstone and Folkestone grammars all full, it may have picked up some second choices in the countryside between the towns. The large number of successful appeals in previous years no doubt contributes to the 29% loss of numbers between Years 11 and 12, third highest in of any grammar in Kent. 

Invicta Grammar just filled its 240 places, all 225 first choices being offered. The days when it took in large numbers of girls on appeal have now faded, and last year there were just 22% of appeals upheld out of a total of 89.  

Maidstone Girls’ Grammar continues to lose out in competition with Invicta, offering just three more places than its low of 122 last year for 180 places. There were 111 first choices. In order to improve numbers, the appeal success rate of 66% of the 75 appeals was the second highest in Kent in 2019.

Highworth Grammar offered its capacity 210 places for the first time this year, as the rapid expansion of Ashford continues at full pace. 198 of these were first choices.

 Tests did all take place on the same day effectively prohibiting children from taking one in Folkestone and one in Dover. A recent School Adjudicator decision should clear this hurdle and will see applicant numbers rise for 2021  

The four Folkestone and Dover grammar schools have, as a result of the Local Tests, considerably the highest proportion for Kent grammar schools of Year 7 children on Pupil Premium (2019 data), next being Highworth with 15%. This is according to October 2019's school census which has the average for grammar schools at 10%.  

The three oversubscribed schools were Dover Girls - offering places to 135 out of its 145 first choices, qualified by either route; : Folkestone School for Girls - 180 out of its 194 first choices (uniquely all offers going to first choices); and Harvey Grammar -  142 out of 163 first choices for its 150 places.

One negative consequence of Local Testing in Dover and Folkestone is that GCSE performance in non-selective schools is significantly undermined as they lose many of their most able pupils. 

I also consider the two other schools running similar local Tests: Highsted below (East Kent ) and Mayfield above (NW Kent). 

The main feature of 2020 admissions is the greatly increased numbers seeking places at the two Thanet grammar schools, Chatham & Clarendon, and Dane Court. This follows an increase in the success rate through the Kent selection procedure for local children which rose from 19% of Thanet children found selective  in 2018 to 23% in the 2019 procedure. The 2019 figure is made up of the second lowest District pass rate in the Kent Test, at 14%, along with the second highest Head Teacher Assessment rate, at 9%. Too many children in local villages have lost out on a grammar school place completely as a consequence.

The parallel non-selective article on secondary transfer explains background to this outcome, with pressure to avoid two schools in the District leading to 187 children getting no school of their choice. One consequence last year was the very high number of appeals to the two grammar schools, as families sought any alternative schools, with 130 at Chatham & Clarendon of which just 18 were upheld. This, along with Dartford Grammar, was the highest number of appeals for any school in Kent. 

Dane Court has been oversubscribed for several years, but for 2020, the figure has shot up to 50 disappointed first choices. 163 of the 165 offers were first choices, so little room for any of those turned down at Chatham and Clarendon. In 2019, 21 appeals out of 68 were upheld, but clearly the number of appeals will rise further this year.

Chatham and Clarendon turned away 29 first choices this year as a consequence of the high success rate, against just one in 2019, no more than two of these could have been offered places at Dane Court. 30 of the 180 C&C places went to children who had put them in second or lower place, who could have been disappointed Dane Court first choices. So either way, there were at least 47 Thanet grammar school eligible children who were not awarded a place at either school, having applied for  one. I describe the interesting history relating to appeals in the Individual Schools Section, leading to 18 appeals upheld out of 130 in 2019.

The Kent Schools Commissioning Plan for 2020 (page 138) records that ‘The two Grammar schools in Thanet are both situated on sites where expansion is unlikely to be achievable due to site, planning and highway constraints’ , which does not augur well for appeals this year. Whilst not anticipating this year's surge in selective numbers,  it looks to an increase in provision in three years’ time from the proposed new Grammar School Annexe by either Queen Elizabeth’s or Barton Court grammars. This was expected to meet fresh demand in Whitstable/Herne Bay and somehow to stretch along to Thanet. Unfortunately, this has been turned down so it is unclear where any extra capacity is coming from.

The other heavily oversubscribed grammar school in East Kent is Sir Roger Manwood’s along the cost from Thanet, in Sandwich,  oversubscribed by 34 first choices, following a surge in numbers from having just filled in 2019.

Simon Langton Boys Grammar in Canterbury, which suffered a sharp fall-off in applications for 2019 as explained here, appears to have recovered its popularity for 2020, turning away 31 first choices for its 150 places. Meanwhile, Simon Langton Girls has the fourth highest number of vacancies at 19, its new replacement building programme coming up for planning approval in April. The third Canterbury grammar, Barton Court, just filled. I’ve not heard of problems this year at Herne Bay/Whitstable where potential grammar school pupils look to both Canterbury and Faversham for grammar school places, which was also the site of the failed grammar school annexe bid.  

Queen Elizabeth’s in Faversham also continues to be popular,  drawing applications from Whitstable/Herne Bay, although  many  have been unsuccessful on distance grounds in previous years, as well as attracting pupils from towards Sittingbourne and Canterbury. However, its level of oversubscription has fallen this year from 34 first choices unsuccessful to 21, for the school’s 140 places.

Borden and Highsted grammar schools in Sittingbourne both usually just about fill. Borden, which had four vacancies last year, is oversubscribed for 2020, turning away nine of its 116 first choices for 120 places. The school had by some way the lowest Progress 8 and Attainment 8 of any grammar school in Kent in 2019. The headteacher moved on to become Head of School at Barton Court in January 2020.  He is succeeded by Ashley Tomlin, currently Principal Deputy Head of the 2000 pupil Thomas Tallis School in Greenwich, one of at least eight heads including five in Kent grammar schools, who once worked for me at Gravesend Grammar and certainly has the determination and ability to make the necessary changes.   Highsted has vacancies for the third consecutive year, three for 2020, ever since it expanded to 150 places, even though it runs its own admission test as an additional route of entry, which saw 27 girls offered places by this route for 2020 (see above at Dover and Folkestone).