Oversubscription and Vacancies in Kent Primary Schools, 2019

This annual report is the longest article I write in the year and will become one of the most visited in time. The parallel 2018 article has now received 13,109 visits at the time of writing. Please let me know of any errors or areas that need expansion. You will find Ofsted outcomes for all schools in the Individual Schools section, and a survey of 2018-19 outcomes to Easter here.

KCC has a target of securing 5% to 10% vacancies in each District, but the norm is that this often hides a sharp distinction between urban and rural areas, and so I have separated these below

At the other end of the scale, the schools in the villages in Folkestone and Hythe District have, together with Hythe itself, 27% of their places empty overall, headed up by Brenzett CofE with three quarters of its places unfilled for the second year running, after its failed Ofsted in November 2015.

Whilst the pattern of the most popular schools changes each year, the four most oversubscribed schools, Brent, Great Chart, Loose and East Borough were also there in 2018, along with Herne CofE Infants. Herne has dropped right down the scale this year with only three first choices disappointed, having had just one year in the limelight (nine oversubscribed in 2017). Brent benefited enormously from its ‘Outstanding’ Ofsted in January 2017, up from ‘Requires Improvement’, having had vacancies in 2017 and there is no doubt about the high correlation between Ofsted category and parental preference, underlining the importance of a strong Ofsted assessment to a school. I also take into consideration schools at the extremes of the KS2 performance table where these are may be relevant, below. Great Chart and Loose are the only Kent schools to have been in the top ten most oversubscribed schools for three years. The Ofsted Special Measures decision for the popular Dartford Bridge arrived too late for parents making choices this year. 

The Districts surveyed are:

Page 2 - Ashford; Canterbury (including Whitstable and Herne Bay); Cranbrook; Dartford; 

Page 3 – Dover Deal & Sandwich; Faversham; Folkestone & Hythe; Gravesham; Maidstone; 

Page 4 -Malling (including Kings Hill); Sevenoaks; Sheppey; Sittingbourne; Swanley

Page 5 -Thanet; Tonbridge;Tunbridge Wells; Junior Schools

The real pressure comes in the rural hinterland with just 11 vacancies in three of the eleven schools, in all 3% of the total number of places.  Even so, just two schools are significantly oversubscribed: Blean with 31 first choices turned away and Bridge & Patrixbourne 15, also the top two in 2018. Even Adisham, another school at the bottom of the KS2 performance table had four disappointed first choices. 

By contrast, a total of 17% of places available at the nine Canterbury coastal schools went unfilled. Just two of these had no vacancies as in 2018, but with their fortunes reversed. Hampton which just filled in 2018 turned away 17 first choices, whilst Herne CofE Infants which had turned away 43 first choices for its 90 places in 2018, saw this figure wither away to three this year.

In the east of Dartford, where many of the schools are in the villages, and where I also include Hartley from Sevenoaks as feeding into Dartford, just three of the twelve schools are oversubscribed with first choices. These are Hartley Primary Academy (13), Our Lady of Hartley (4), both with ‘Outstanding’ Ofsteds and Craylands with nine.  Last year’s new Cherry Orchard Primary had an additional 30 places added to its original 30. Even so only three more have vacancies, not including Stone St Mary’s  which fills by virtue of its 12 LAAs, a sharp fall from 2018, when it was the most popular school with 18 places oversubscribed. Knockhall Primary continues to be very unpopular, having  previously been unfortunate to be a Lilac Sky school, with a third of its places empty, even after 20 LAAs. The other two schools with vacancies, both having just one form of entry, are Bean (33%) and Darenth Community (30%).

In Deal and Sandwich, where there are a large number of rural schools, again over half the 19 schools have vacancies, Goodnestone having 5 of its ten places empty, for the second consecutive year, and Sandwich Infants 38%. St Mary’s Catholic School tops the oversubscription list of seven schools, turning away just 8 disappointed first choices.

The more important news is the mass conversion of Deal and Walmer primary schools to become Academies, in a single Multi Academy Trust, the Deal Education Alliance for Learning Trust (DEALT) in spite of considerable local opposition, as explained here in an article where I applauded the proposal. The seven schools are: Deal Parochial CofE; Hornbeam; Kingsdown and Ringwould CofE (Ofsted Outstadning, the other six are all Good); Northbourne CofE; Sandown; Sholden CofE; and The Downs CofE.  The other two local primary schools are already academies.

For unfathomable reasons, KCC doubled the Published Admission Number for Bysing Wood to 60 in 2017 and has kept it there, resulting in a 75% vacancy rate this year, the highest in the county along with two other schools. Graveney, a standalone academy witha PAN of 15, has made just six offers and one wonders how much longer such a small moderately performing school can operate on its own. Luddenham also has over 50% vacancies.

Just one of the 18 town schools, Sandgate is significantly oversubscribed turning down 14 first choices (most recent full Ofsted inspection was in 2007, when the school was found Outstanding), with Christ Church CofE second with eight, benefiting from its excellent KS2 results in 2018. Five other town schools had vacancies, most at Mundella with 40% empty spaces.

In the whole of Hythe and the rural parts of the District, just one of the 19 schools is oversubscribed, Saltwood, oversubscribed by four first choices. 13 schools did not fill, with Brenzett once again 75% vacancies, or 15 of its 20 places. The school’s most recent Ofsted placed it in Special Measures and along with Dymchurch (44%) also in SM, it was taken over by Aquila, the Diocese of Canterbury Academy Trust which has a good record in turning round schools,  notably at Reculver and St Mary of Charity both in Special Measures under KCC, but Outstanding after academisation. Lydd also with a high proportion of vacancies and a dire history, including Special Measures, now taken over by The Village Academy Trust has 42% vacancies. It will clearly take time to restore confidence in these schools.

Meanwhile in Gravesend, where there is no shortage of places, St George’s CofE has been allowed to open a Primary section, admitting 30 children and contributing to the loss in six other schools of a total of 51 pupils, including nearby Whitehill losing 10 from a school recently oversubscribed. Also in 2018 Singlewell, which has three vacancies, was oversubscribed by 21 first choices in a typical year. To compound this problem, St George’s has been given permission to advertise for Year One pupils for September, who will be drawn directly out of other local schools, damaging their plans for the year. Just two schools are oversubscribed, with 19 at St John’s Catholic.

Just one of the seven village schools has vacancies, Vigo Village School at the far end of the Borough with 9 empty spaces. Istead Rise has overcome its previous horrors, and its Good Ofsted gained under new Sponsors Swale Academy Trust, sees it full for the first time on many years. Elsewhere there is a considerable shift in popularity. Cobham, for some years one of the most oversubscribed schools in the county, is down to 10 disappointed first choices (from 21 in 2018 and 35 in 2017), although 2018 KS2 results are amongst the best in Kent, including highest proportion of pupils achieving at a higher standard. Higham is down from 11 to one oversubscribed, whilst travelling in the other direction Meopham which had eight vacancies in 2018, is 11 first choices oversubscribed.

Eight schools have 10 or more first choices turned away, headed up by Loose (48) and East Borough (46) the second and third most oversubscribed schools in Kent. Third again is Greenfields with 39, well up on 2018’s 22 and a long way from the days when I advised families how to avoid the school. Then come: St John’s CofE (37); St Michael’s CofE Infants (31); South Borough (21); and Brunswick House (17).

Quite simply, there are not enough primary school places in Maidstone even though Allington (Outstanding in 2008, and not subsequently inspected) took in an additional form of entry to ease the pressure, so that effectively there were no vacancies at all. A few years ago KCC tried to commission a new school in Bearsted, but was overruled by government which approved one for Langley Park, outside town, which did not meet the need at that time, but saw Bearsted children allocated to the school on the other side of town. Then, in 2017 another new school was approved for opening in September 2018, the Bearsted Primary Academy, although as so often the opening date has now slipped to 2020 even  though the need is now.

Other schools with a number of LAAs are Archbishop Courtenay, Special Measures in 2017 (11), , and Tree Tops, out of Special Measures in 2015, up to Requires Improvement twice (8), 

In total, there are 82 LAAs across Maidstone, almost 20% of the total for Kent.

Outside town, just three of the 20 schools were significantly oversubscribed: Bredhurst CofE, tucked just in Kent up against the M2 in Gillingham, Ofsted Outstanding in 2011, turning away 33 disappointed first choices. Then come Langley Park (see above) with 14, and Boughton Monchelsea with 10.

Worryingly, there are three schools with five or fewer children offered places on allocation, so they are surely at risk in terms of viability, although all three have a recent Good Ofsted. Leeds & Bromfield and Ulcombe both have a Published Admission Number of 15, and admitted the same number in 2017, although both filled in 2018. The other school is Laddingford St Mary’s CofE, with a PAN of just 13,

The other school with a large number of vacancies is Harrietsham, which doubled in size to an intake of 60 in 2018 and, in spite of its Good Ofsted, has 25 empty places. 

There is little oversubscription, but headed by Kings Hill with 12 first choices disappointed, with Brookfield Infants 10, and Lunsford 9, both in Aylesford. Aylesford Primary,  run by Valley Invicta Trust (see below) was enlarged by 15 places to 60 and filled 52 in total, confirming the extreme pressure in that area. 17 schools had vacancies, over half the total, the highest proportion being at Valley Invicta (Kings Hill) with 50% of its places or 15 out of 30, unfilled. The Discovery School also on Kings Hill has 19 of its 60 places empty. A few years ago, when there were just Discovery and Kings Hill serving the area they were both heavily oversubscribed.

Next highest is Burham, with 46% vacant spaces and St Katherine’s, Snodland suffering a massive fall in popularity with 44% of its 90 places unfilled, following a fall in Ofsted rating to Requires Improvement. Staplehurst also suffered from a fall in Ofsted to Requires Improvement, with 40% empty spaces.

The large hinterland of Sevenoaks District (excluding Swanley below) has just 44 first choices denied across its 21 schools, spread across 11 schools, and up from 11 first choices oversubscribed in 2018. Most are at Chiddingstone CofE (15) and Crockenhill (8).

Eight schools have a total of 100 vacancies, over half being at Edenbridge (39) with its dreadful history, including being placed in Special Measures, but subsequently academised, and Churchill CofE, Westerham (27), Ofsted downgraded to Requires Improvement, along with very poor KS2 results. Penshurst CofE may have just six vacancies, but this is 40% of its total intake of 15 pupils.

In and around the town, three schools out of the 13 are significantly oversubscribed, led by Canterbury Road and Iwade each turning away 14 first choices, followed by St Peter’s Catholic with seven. Five schools have vacancies, Sunny Bank having 53% places empty. The school is the result of the recent amalgamation of Murston Infant and Junior schools, which does not appear to have been popular with parents. Regis Manor has also declined in popularity with 40% vacancies.

Of particular note is Tunstall CofE, which relocated to new premises on the edge of town, doubled in size and armed with an Outstanding Ofsted was the most popular school in Sittingbourne in 2018, but has slumped to having 12% vacancies this year after the appointment of a new head, despite the claim on the welcome page of its website that it is 'extremely popular and oversubscribed '.. Something has changed .

Outside the town, the only one of the 15 schools to have significant oversubscription is Bobbing, turning away 31 first choices. None of the other five oversubscribed schools have more than four first choices rejected. Nine schools with vacancies, headed up by Eastling with 60% empty spaces, followed by two schools from The Village Academy Trust, Milstead & Frinsted CofE with 53%, and Lynsted & Norton with 45%. No others above 20%.

The only school seriously oversubscribed is Slade, normally Tonbridge’s most popular school (and most oversubscribed in Kent in 2017), turning away 31 first choices, followed by Sussex Road with 8. Half of the town’s 14 schools have vacancies, most as usual in the north of the town at Longmead Community (53% vacancies) and Cage Green (38%), both of which Require Improvement according to their latest Ofsted inspection. Next is Royal Rise with 33% whose most recent Ofsted placed it in Special Measures before it was academised in 2017 under the Cygnus Trust, which also has two schools in Dartford.  

Temple Grove, usually the least popular school in the town, filled its 30 places this year thanks to 11 LAAs, although many of these won’t take them up as private education draws a number of children out of the system.  This left Rusthall St Paul’s with 50% vacancies, followed by St Mark’s CofE with 30%, propped up by eight LAAs.

As a result, there are only three schools significantly oversubscribed, headed up by Whitstable & Seasalter Endowed CofE, as some families at Whitstable Juniors  have attempt to switch for some years to a school with an Outstanding Ofsted and, normally very high KS2 results but not for 2018! But few will have been successful as Whitstable Juniors remains full in Year Three each September. StJames’ CofE Junior in Tunbridge Wells had six unsuccessful first choices.

Five schools have 20% or more vacancies which may depend on other factors than their own reputation such as the number coming through from the linked Infant school, or other opportunities in the area. For example Sandwich Junior School had 48% vacancies, making 31 offers, not surprising with the feed in current Year Two at the Infant school having just 34 places filled for a PAN of 56. In Thanet, Christ Church CofE Juniors has 30% vacancies, but no specific linked Infant school, and St Laurence in Thanet CofE Juniors has 22%, linked to Ellington Infant which is usually undersubscribed.  Ditton CofE Junior is also 22% undersubscribed but having attracted 50 of the 52 children from Year Two in the Infant school.